Cobalt metal prices fell to a nine year low in February after another year of oversupply, but rebounded sharply after the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) instituted a four month export pause for the critical metal.
After starting the year at US$24,495 per metric ton, cobalt ended the three month period at US$34,040.40, a strong 39 percent increase from January’s value. The price spread between cobalt’s first quarter low of US$21,467.70 on January 29 and its Q1 high of US$36,262 on March 17 is even more impressive at 69 percent.
The drop to US$21,467.70 marked the battery metal’s lowest level since February 2016.
Cobalt’s Q1 price activity comes after a persistent glut in the market prevented prices from gaining in 2024, and this oversupply continued to weigh the market down for the first 45 days of 2025.
A February 22 announcement that DRC would curtail cobalt shipments until the end of June provided much-needed tailwinds for prices, propelling them to highs last seen in 2023. Now sitting at the US$33,660.80 level, questions abound about what will happen to cobalt prices and the supply landscape during the rest of the year.
DRC export suspension boosts oversupplied market
Cobalt supply has ballooned over the last five years, with annual mine supply of the critical metal growing from 140,000 metric tons in 2020 to 290,000 metric tons in 2024. This 107 percent increase has far outpaced rising demand from the electric vehicle (EV) sector and other end-use segments, leading to a massive oversupply.
In mid-February, Rob Searle, battery raw materials analyst at Fastmarkets, wrote that while sector participants were waiting to see whether demand would pick up after the Lunar New Year, his firm wasn’t overly optimistic on prices.
‘At this stage we are not expecting a significant price correction given the oversupplied nature of the market from intermediates to cobalt metal,’ he explained, adding that cobalt could be due for ‘another bearish year.’
Searle also noted that producer CMOC’s (OTC Pink:CMCLF,SHA:603993) 2025 guidance is pegged at 100,000 to 120,000 metric tons, on par with the 114,000 metric tons it produced in 2024.
Looking at the US, he said while potential tariffs on Canadian cobalt metal could create short-term tightness for ‘certain Western brands,’ Fastmarkets wasn’t looking for a strong 2025 recovery in standard-grade cobalt metal pricing.
In response to the free-falling cobalt metal price, the DRC — the world’s leading cobalt-producing country by far — enacted a four month cobalt export suspension on February 24. The move quickly added tailwinds to cobalt metal prices, which as mentioned rose to a two year high of US$36,262 on March 17.
“The cobalt market has been quiet and stagnant for some time as production has far outstripped demand in the last 18 months. This was the first sign of life and took nearly all parties by surprise … a cut of supply this large will likely lead to a significant price correction in the coming months,” Searle noted in a March 14 release.
“Post-June, when the ban is supposed to lift, the potential for export quotas going forward could support cobalt hydroxide and metal prices for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.”
While companies are unable to ship cobalt hydroxide from the DRC, the suspension does not prevent the production and stockpiling of the critical material. Officials plan to review the embargo after three months.
Breaking down cobalt demand
The battery sector remains the largest cobalt end-use segment, representing approximately 70 percent of demand. This includes batteries in EVs, consumer goods and energy storage systems.
Super alloys, tooling and chemicals and catalysts account for the majority of the remaining 30 percent, with a small fraction also being used in magnets, medical implants and additive manufacturing (3D printing).
As Adam Webb, head of battery raw materials at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, explained at the Toronto-based Benchmark Summit in March, positive forecasts and significant growth in the EV market in 2020 and 2021 led to a widespread demand uptick for battery raw materials, including cobalt.
“That led to markets going into deficit, prices rising, and that incentivized new production to come online,” he said.
“But bringing on a new mine is not like turning on a tap — it takes time. So that new supply that was incentivized eventually came online a couple of years later, at the same time there’s been a slowdown in the growth of that demand, and that’s led to all of these markets becoming oversupplied and weighing on prices,’ Webb added.
Will EV growth catalyze cobalt prices?
Although global EV sales have been lower than projected, the sector has registered widespread growth, setting a sales record in 2024 of 17.1 million EVs sold, representing a 25 percent year-on-year increase.
Regionally, China dominated with 40 percent growth, capped by a historic December that saw 1.3 million EVs sold, the highest monthly volume ever recorded, according to RhoMotion. The US posted a modest 9 percent uptick, fueled by federal tax credits that are now threatened by potential Trump administration rollbacks; meanwhile, Europe lagged with a 3 percent decline as automakers and consumers braced for tougher 2025 emissions standards.
“What is clear is that Government carrots and sticks are working,” Rho Motion data manager Charles Lester said in a January report. He explained that subsidies, incentives and mandates in the UK and North America supported growth.
“Meanwhile the removal of subsidies in Germany had a devastating impact on the whole European market, if the US follows suit, we may see the same there,” Lester added.
While full Q1 data for EV sales is yet to be available, January brought sales of 1.3 million units, an 18 percent year-on-year increase. The steady increase has prompted Rho Motion to forecast full-year sales exceeding 20 million units.
Substitution concerns mount as supply chain tightens
While EV sales continue to rise, cobalt’s future demand outlook is slightly obscured. The opacity is due to its growing substitution, with some battery chemistries using smaller amounts or no cobalt at all.
Although lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) batteries remain the preferred chemistry for EV batteries, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistries have been increasing their market share. Accounting for 6 percent of the battery sector in 2020, LFPs now comprise as much as 34 percent of the market.
Even with low prices making cobalt affordable, the market is fraught with issues that make substitution appealing.
Human rights abuses, including child labor and unsafe work conditions in the DRC, have long plagued the country’s cobalt sector. These ethical concerns have prompted companies to seek more sustainable and humane alternatives.
Concentration of production has also created instability in the cobalt supply chain. The DRC’s dominance in cobalt production, accounting for over 60 percent of global supply, exposes manufacturers to geopolitical and supply risks.
To combat these issues, researchers and companies are developing cobalt-free battery technologies, such as lithium-ion batteries using nickel-rich cathodes, which perform comparably to traditional cobalt-based batteries.
“In 2024, the volume of cobalt deployed per vehicle declined by 25 percent year on year,” as per Fastmarkets.
While demand for cobalt will continue due to the expansion of the EV market, these ethical, economic and supply chain concerns are driving the industry toward alternative battery chemistries with reduced or eliminated cobalt content.
In light of these factors, Benchmark’s Webb expects the cobalt sector’s compound annual growth rate to be slightly lower than that of other battery raw materials, coming in at 7 percent over the next decade.
“That’s simply because cobalt is not used in every single lithium ion battery, whereas lithium — the clue is in the name — it is,” said Webb.
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
